“They signed me off, but I won’t write back.” What a great bar. What a great way to end the first week of the fantasy football season.But we’re already looking into the future in minutes Gene Smith Drop the hottest offer of 2022. Injury updates and reactions to offseason hypotheses immediately filled our schedule.
As Week 2 kicks off tonight, we’ll see how accurate some of the analytics are.
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AFC West battle begins as Chiefs host Chargers
Once again, the NFL schedulers have a great night planned for us. What we got was not a possible Super Bowl, but a future AFC playoff. Patrick Mahomes It looked unstoppable as the Chiefs announced their new offense, but as you can see, Justin Herbert And the charger still has matching firepower:
I’ve watched and watched this pitch more times than I’d like to admit. I don’t know. It’s not just the pass itself, but what baffles me is the decision to separate the two defenders and put the ball in front of the third.see herbert back release.He knew it was good before it happened Keenan Allenby hand
It’s hard to underestimate the talent on the field in this game. But I’m going to pay attention to a few things in the Chargers’ offense.
Last season, Los Angeles had the sixth-best early pass percentage in neutral situations at 56.8 percent. They open at a rate of 66.7% in 2022. But even though he’s a robot under center, Herbert’s aDOT in these games is 5.5 yards. For reference, Mahomes had a 6.6 aDOT on Sunday in similar conditions. So, you’d think the Chargers are just as effective on the ground to keep their offense moving.
Los Angeles ranks 30th in the EPA rankings for each peak. Somehow, their running got worse.kansas city hero James Connor At a 40.0 percent rushing success rate, he needs a touchdown to save his day. Austin Eckler A similar beating may be required. Alternatively, the Chiefs could force the Chargers into a high-scoring game.
On the KC side of the ball, life doesn’t Terrek Mountain It looks easy. My long-held belief was that the Chiefs could put their receiving room Frankenstein into the Hill.Rather than having one person do multiple things, simply have multiple menThat made our job as fantasy managers harder, but we quickly saw who had the “Terek Hill” function on Sunday.
Hill is the team’s leading position receiver in 2021, and Mahomes is targeting a 37.3 percent dropback. Juju Smith-Schuster and Michael Hardman Hours when most routes run from the inside. But Smith-Schuster’s 1.79 YPRR is much better.
Unsurprisingly, Hill won the most goals with 20-plus aerial yards last year. Mahomes’ deep ball rate has steadily declined as he sees more two-high coverage, but he’ll still swing for the fence if given the chance. Hardman once again gained some attention. And of course, Marquez Valdes-Scantling To keep Kansas City’s penchant for snap-front window trim, he ran a jet sweep.
Everything is still there, just with new (and more) faces. Reports of the chief’s death were greatly exaggerated. But there is a big test ahead of them.
The Chargers’ defensive line nearly matched the Bills’ pressure rate at 30.2 percent. therefore, Derek Carr Ranked 26th in the EPA per race.The Raiders’ only explosive pass didn’t come until the fourth quarter, 31 yards Darren Waller. Mahomes can handle the pressure, but we’ll see if his new passing option can do that.
Don’t let these people sit on the bench
I’m trying to control my reaction last week. It’s easy to get excited when a late-rounder pops up. But we only have a few days to decide on the lineup, and we can’t use the hype as a reason to start one. To help, I have a couple of people worth starting with if you need a flex option.
Starting Everett (or being comfortable with it) shouldn’t depend on Allen’s availability (he’s already been left out). I mean, of course, anyone can connect the two dots and see more opportunities for Everett and one less option for Herbert. But we don’t know how the Chargers will fill an Allen-sized hole in their offense. So, let’s start with what we know:
At worst, Los Angeles is putting Everett on the offensive end. His 17.4% TPRR ranks 15th among his peers (minimum of 4 goals). However, compare his usage to other tight ends on the new team. Evan IngramThe TPRR of 11.4%. OJ Howard Got half the goal, I forgot Austin Hooper Been with the Titans until the fourth quarter. Plus, Everett is efficient with the looks he receives.
Everett’s 2.35 YPRR eased him into the top five, and he had half of his goals coming when the Chargers were in scoring position. The Chargers’ willingness to let him move around (slots, wings, backcourt) in his first game hinted at their plans. On Thursday night, I’ll have him start picking the most fringe top 12 picks.
I think it makes sense Clyde Edwards-Hiller After Sunday. As we envisioned, the Chiefs deployed him as a charge and receiver with two touchdowns to keep our hopes alive. But he is not a one-man army.
McKinnon is comparable to Edwards-Helaire (27), but McKinnon’s target per route run (TPRR) rate of 22.2% is higher than Edwards-Helaire (20.0%). McKinnon also had a higher EPA per sprint (0.3 to 0.15) while the race was still competitive. His only downfall was an absence in the red zone, but we can’t expect anything like that tonight.
McKinnon traded one-on-one with Edwards-Helaire in Week 1. At 30, his 13.6 YAC per reception is in line with his younger opponent (14.0). Kansas City needs explosive play to keep up with Los Angeles, and McKinnon still has the quality. If you need help at RB, take a look at McKinnon.
Don’t let it twist. I don’t want to chase touchdowns here. Hardman shone in the end zone after most Cardinals fans left the stadium. Also, he only had 16 yards on the day. But his use caught my eye because the Chiefs will need to use all their weapons to win tonight.
Hardman saw goals on the 24.0% route in Week 1. Mahomes only for Travis Kelcher and Smith-Schuster ratios are higher.This type Or goals are also interesting.
Hardman led the team in the red zone goal (3) and tied Smith-Schuster’s deep goal while the rest of his goals went into the short section of the field. While he mostly stays on the perimeter, it’s also a factor in his shooting fluctuations. But that didn’t stop Mahomes from looking at Hardeman.
My only concern is his line engagement, as he only ran 25 of Mahomes’ 41 dropbacks (the fewest among full-time players). However, Hardman did pick up a 28.3 percent air yardage share in the opener. He’ll be less popular given his track record, but worth a shot if you need to pack a punch in your lineup.
Let’s wait a week and see how it goes
On the other hand, I don’t want to overreact to a single game sample. I’m still holding on to some of the preseason narratives, and I can’t compare to last week’s action. Maybe Week 1 heralds what’s to come, but I’ll put these guys on my bench for now.
Palmer’s offseason narrative was that he was Allen’s replacement. His 10.0 aDOT is in line with how Allen usually operates. When Allen was sidelined last season, Palmer took over the Chargers’ coveted position. However, we didn’t see much work for the sophomore after Allen dropped out.
The positive spin was the second-most route he ran and was the only WR with a red zone target in Week 1 in Los Angeles.However, Palmer and DeAndre Carter Split the slot character into three objectives. Carter is more efficient in the low-field versatile duo.
The Palmer looks like another cog in the Herbert machine. Even in the high-scoring games we expect, I would have liked more time to figure it out.
Maybe I’m a diehard here. Anyway, I need to see more from Pacheco. Boxscore scouts will be quick to point to his yardage total as the reason to start him. Yes, Not Bad. I’m also happy to get 12.2 points from a player in the final round. But let’s take a minute to get a real look at his results.
Pacheco’s first touch didn’t come until the Chiefs’ third offense as the final rotation player. He had two yards on two carries (one goal-line attempt). We didn’t see the rookie again until it was 37-15 in the fourth quarter. As the game went on, Pacheco ran for 62 for 60 yards with Edwards-Hyler seated, and McKinnon made a pointless run on their final hit. It’s hard to see a similar game scene in TNF.
Pacheco did nothing on Sunday to change his place in the priority list. He was the least efficient of the trio on the ground (0.01 EPA per attempt). Plus, he only missed a single goal on four routes. I’ll wait another week to get a clearer picture of Pacheco’s future role.